Social Security recipients have a clearer picture of what their payments could look like in 2027, although the final cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) has not yet been announced.
The Senior Citizens League projected a 3.5% increase on Sept. 11, while AARP released a slightly higher 3.6% estimate the same day. If either forecast is close to the final figure, Social Security beneficiaries would receive larger monthly payments next year.
The difference between the forecasts is relatively small, but the exact percentage matters because it will determine how much is added to individual benefits. The official COLA is scheduled to be announced on Oct. 14, 2026.
Forecast
The Senior Citizens League’s latest estimate calls for a 3.5% COLA for Social Security and Supplemental Security Income payments in 2027.
Based on the organization’s calculation, the average monthly Social Security benefit for retired workers could increase by about $67.90, rising from approximately $1,940 to $2,007.
The organization previously estimated a 3.6% increase in August, so its latest projection represents a modest downward revision.
AARP’s Sept. 11 forecast was 3.6%. Using the same approximate benefit level, that would produce an increase of around $70 per month. AARP’s published estimate cited an increase of about $75 for the average check.
These figures are estimates, not guaranteed payment amounts. The final COLA will be determined using the official inflation data required under federal law.
Inflation
Inflation is the central factor behind the annual Social Security adjustment.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Sept. 11 that the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, or CPI-U, increased 3.4% over the 12 months ending in August.
Several categories contributed to the latest monthly movement. Gasoline prices increased 3.9% in August, accounting for more than one-third of the monthly increase in the all-items index. The energy index rose 2.1%, while shelter prices increased 0.3%.
Food prices increased 0.1% during the month, with prices for food purchased away from home rising 0.3%.
These figures help explain the broader inflation environment, but the CPI-U is not the index directly used to determine the Social Security COLA.
Formula
The Social Security Administration uses the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, known as CPI-W, for the COLA calculation.
The CPI-W measures changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by urban wage earners and clerical workers.
Under the Social Security Act, the calculation uses CPI-W readings from July, August, and September. The average for those three months is compared with the corresponding average from the previous year.
The percentage difference becomes the COLA for the following year.
This is why the final September inflation data is important. Forecasting groups can estimate the eventual adjustment using available information, but the official percentage cannot be known until the required data is available and the SSA completes its calculation.
Payments
The effect of a 2027 COLA will vary depending on the amount each beneficiary currently receives.
For example, a 3.5% increase on a $1,940 monthly benefit would add about $67.90 per month. That would produce a new monthly payment of approximately $2,007.
A 3.6% adjustment on the same benefit would result in an increase of about $69.84 per month.
| COLA | Example Benefit | Approx. Increase | Approx. New Benefit |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.5% | $1,940 | $67.90 | $2,007.90 |
| 3.6% | $1,940 | $69.84 | $2,009.84 |
These calculations are examples based on a $1,940 benefit. They do not represent the payment every Social Security recipient will receive.
Comparison
The latest estimates can also be viewed alongside the previous year’s adjustment.
Social Security recipients received a 2.8% COLA for 2026. A final 2027 adjustment of 3.5% would be 0.7 percentage points higher, while a 3.6% adjustment would be 0.8 percentage points higher.
| Year | COLA |
|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.8% |
| 2027 forecast | 3.5% |
| 2027 forecast | 3.6% |
The comparison shows why the latest forecasts have attracted attention among beneficiaries, but it does not establish what the final 2027 adjustment will be.
Purchasing
The purpose of the COLA is to help Social Security and SSI benefits keep pace with changes in consumer prices.
However, the adjustment does not guarantee that every beneficiary’s personal expenses will rise at the same rate.
Retirees often have different spending patterns from working-age households. Healthcare, housing, food, utilities, transportation, and other expenses can make up different portions of an older household’s budget.
The Senior Citizens League has argued that CPI-W may not fully reflect the spending patterns of older Americans. That is part of a broader discussion about whether another inflation measure could more closely track the expenses faced by Social Security beneficiaries.
For now, however, CPI-W remains the index specified by law for the COLA calculation.
Announcement
The official 2027 Social Security COLA is scheduled to be announced on Wednesday, Oct. 14, 2026.
Until then, the 3.5% and 3.6% figures should be viewed as forecasts. Additional inflation data or unexpected changes in economic conditions can affect projections before the official announcement.
Once the SSA announces the COLA, beneficiaries will be able to calculate the approximate effect on their own monthly payments using their current benefit amount.
Planning
Retirees can use the latest forecasts as a general guide when planning their 2027 household budgets, but it may be useful to avoid treating a projected increase as guaranteed income.
For someone receiving $1,940 per month, a COLA around 3.5% to 3.6% would mean an increase of roughly $68 to $70 per month. Someone receiving more or less than that amount would see a different dollar increase.
The 2027 adjustment will ultimately be determined by the official CPI-W calculation, not by an individual forecast from an advocacy organization.
For now, the available estimates place next year’s Social Security COLA around the mid-3% range. The October announcement will provide the final percentage and give beneficiaries a firm figure to use when planning their 2027 income and expenses.
FAQs
What is the latest 2027 COLA forecast?
The latest forecasts range from 3.5% to 3.6%.
When will the 2027 COLA be announced?
The official COLA is scheduled for October 14, 2026.
What index is used for COLA?
The SSA uses the CPI-W for its COLA calculation.
What was the 2026 COLA?
The 2026 Social Security COLA was 2.8%.
