Millions of Social Security beneficiaries are waiting for the official 2027 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA), which is expected to be announced in October 2026. Current estimates suggest the increase could be around 3.5%, although the final percentage will depend on inflation data that has not yet been released.
The same COLA percentage will apply nationwide, but the dollar increase will vary from person to person. Beneficiaries who currently receive larger monthly payments would generally see a larger increase in dollar terms when the adjustment is applied.
Based on December 2025 data from the Social Security Administration (SSA), cited by The Motley Fool, these 10 states had the highest median monthly Social Security benefits for retired workers. If the final 2027 COLA were 3.5%, beneficiaries with benefits near those median levels could see comparatively larger monthly increases.
Announcement
The official 2027 Social Security COLA is expected to be announced on October 14, 2026, after the September inflation data becomes available.
The SSA calculates the annual COLA using the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, known as CPI-W. The calculation compares the average CPI-W for July, August and September with the average for the same three months of the previous year.
The September figure is therefore an important part of the calculation. Until that data is available, any 2027 COLA percentage remains an estimate.
The Senior Citizens League’s latest projection is 3.5%. A separate estimate reported by AARP has been around 3.6%. These figures can change as new inflation data is released.
Beneficiaries can follow the SSA’s official COLA information through its Cost-of-Living Adjustment page.
Benefits
The COLA is a percentage adjustment, so the dollar value depends on the size of the existing monthly benefit.
For example, if the final COLA were 3.5%, a beneficiary receiving $1,940.08 per month would receive an estimated increase of $67.90. The resulting monthly benefit would be approximately $2,007.98 before any deductions.
A person receiving $2,256 per month would receive approximately $78.96 more under the same 3.5% assumption.
| Current monthly benefit | 3.5% increase | Estimated monthly benefit |
|---|---|---|
| $1,500 | $52.50 | $1,552.50 |
| $1,940.08 | $67.90 | $2,007.98 |
| $2,090 | $73.15 | $2,163.15 |
| $2,121 | $74.24 | $2,195.24 |
| $2,144 | $75.04 | $2,219.04 |
| $2,181 | $76.34 | $2,257.34 |
| $2,215 | $77.53 | $2,292.53 |
| $2,225 | $77.88 | $2,302.88 |
| $2,249 | $78.72 | $2,327.72 |
| $2,256 | $78.96 | $2,334.96 |
These calculations are illustrations based on a 3.5% projection. They are not the official 2027 Social Security payment amounts.
For more information about how retirement benefits are calculated, beneficiaries can review the SSA’s official Retirement Benefits page.
States
The state where a person lives does not directly determine the size of their Social Security retirement benefit. Benefits are primarily influenced by a worker’s earnings history and the age at which they claim benefits.
State-level differences can nevertheless appear in median benefit data. Higher lifetime earnings in some areas, along with differences in the retiree population, can contribute to variations between states.
According to December 2025 data cited by The Motley Fool, the 10 states with the highest median monthly Social Security benefits for retired workers were:
| State | Median monthly benefit | 3.5% estimated increase |
|---|---|---|
| New Jersey | $2,256 | $78.96 |
| Connecticut | $2,249 | $78.72 |
| Delaware | $2,225 | $77.88 |
| New Hampshire | $2,215 | $77.53 |
| Maryland | $2,181 | $76.34 |
| Washington | $2,144 | $75.04 |
| Michigan | $2,139 | $74.87 |
| Minnesota | $2,135 | $74.73 |
| Massachusetts | $2,121 | $74.24 |
| Utah | $2,090 | $73.15 |
The estimated increase column simply applies 3.5% to each median benefit. It does not mean every Social Security recipient in those states will receive that amount.
For example, a New Jersey resident receiving $1,700 per month would have a different dollar increase from someone receiving the state’s $2,256 median. The individual’s actual benefit is what determines the COLA increase.
Medicare
The increase in a Social Security benefit and the amount deposited into a bank account are not always the same thing.
Medicare premiums can be deducted from Social Security payments. If Medicare premiums increase, some beneficiaries could see part of their Social Security increase offset by higher deductions.
Other factors can also affect a beneficiary’s final payment. As a result, retirees should wait for the official COLA and the applicable Medicare premium information before estimating their exact 2027 take-home amount.
The Medicare.gov official website provides current information about Medicare premiums, coverage and costs.
Timing
The 2027 COLA is not official yet. The latest projection discussed here is 3.5%, compared with the 2.8% COLA applied for 2026.
The final number depends on the CPI-W data used by the SSA. Once the September inflation figure is available, the agency can complete the calculation and announce the official adjustment.
The October announcement will give beneficiaries a firm percentage to use when estimating their 2027 payments. Until then, projections should be treated as estimates rather than guaranteed increases.
The main difference between beneficiaries will be the size of their existing Social Security benefit. A higher benefit produces a larger dollar increase when the same COLA percentage is applied. However, the final amount received can also be affected by Medicare premiums and other deductions.
For now, October 14, 2026, is the key date for beneficiaries watching the 2027 Social Security COLA. The official SSA announcement, rather than current forecasts, will determine the actual percentage used for the 2027 adjustment.
